The voluntary carbon market in 2026: state of play
The voluntary carbon market has had a turbulent few years. After the 2023 credibility crisis, demand contracted and prices fell. In 2026 the market is stabilising — but the mix of credits being traded, and the buyers willing to buy them, has shifted significantly.
Tool via The Carbon Workbench
The voluntary carbon market has had a turbulent few years. After the 2023 credibility crisis, demand contracted and prices fell. In 2026 the market is stabilising — but the mix of credits being traded, and the buyers willing to buy them, has shifted significantly.
What is the voluntary carbon market?
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) is where companies, governments, and individuals buy carbon credits to offset emissions on a voluntary basis — without being legally required to do so. It is distinct from compliance markets like the EU ETS, where participation is mandatory.
The VCM exists because many organisations have made net zero commitments that require them to address emissions they cannot yet eliminate — and because some buyers genuinely want to finance climate action beyond what regulations require.
What happened in 2022–2023?
In January 2023, investigative journalism by The Guardian, Zeit, and SourceMaterial reported that a large proportion of Verra's REDD+ credits — which make up a substantial share of the overall VCM — may not represent real reductions. Researchers suggested that up to 94% of rainforest offset credits used by major airlines and retail brands were "phantom credits" with little or no climate value.
The response was swift and damaging. Several major corporates, including EasyJet and Gucci, quietly dropped or reduced their offset programmes. Verra's CEO resigned. REDD+ credit prices collapsed from $12–18/t to $3–6/t. Overall VCM transaction volumes fell sharply in the first half of 2023.
Where does the market stand in 2026?
By 2026, the market has stabilised at a lower volume but with a meaningfully different composition. Verra has tightened its REDD+ methodology. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) published its Core Carbon Principles in 2023 and began assessing which standards and methodologies meet its baseline quality requirements.
Aviation demand through CORSIA is one reason eligibility is becoming more important. Airline buyers need credits that qualify as CORSIA eligible emissions units, which can create a distinction between ordinary voluntary credits and credits suitable for aviation compliance.
Total VCM transaction volume reached $2.4 billion in Q1 2026 — a record quarter — driven by a surge in demand from corporates under growing CSRD and SEC climate disclosure pressure. But the composition of demand has changed: buyers are moving up the quality ladder, with blue carbon, cookstove, and removal credits growing as a share of total volume, while plain REDD+ continues to shrink.
| Credit category | Share of VCM volume (2022) | Share of VCM volume (2026 est.) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| REDD+ (avoided deforestation) | ~40% | ~18% | ↓ Declining |
| Renewable energy | ~25% | ~15% | ↓ Declining |
| Cookstoves / household energy | ~10% | ~14% | → Stable |
| Blue carbon | ~3% | ~9% | ↑ Rising |
| Biochar and engineered removal | ~2% | ~11% | ↑ Rising fast |
| Reforestation / ARR | ~8% | ~13% | ↑ Rising |
| Other nature-based | ~12% | ~20% | ↑ Rising |
Article 6 and international credit flows
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement established the framework for internationally traded carbon credits between countries. After years of negotiation, Article 6.4 — the centralised UN carbon market — began issuing its first credits in 2024. The market is still small but growing, and Article 6 credits are expected to become increasingly important for corporate buyers seeking the highest-quality, government-backed credits.
What is the ICVCM doing?
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) is an independent governance body that assesses whether carbon crediting programmes meet its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). Programmes that receive CCP approval — indicating their methodology meets baseline quality standards — will be able to label credits as "CCP-approved," which is expected to become a market standard for institutional buyers.
As of 2026, the ICVCM has assessed several major methodologies. Gold Standard and Verra have received conditional CCP approval for some methodology categories. Approval is not yet universal, and buyers should check the ICVCM website for current status.
Key takeaway
The voluntary carbon market in 2026 is recovering in volume but transforming in composition. Buyers are moving away from cheap REDD+ avoidance credits and toward higher-quality nature-based projects and removal credits. For companies making public net zero claims, the direction of travel is clear: quality matters more than price, and the market infrastructure to assess quality is finally maturing.