UK low-carbon economy progress 2026: turnover is up 91% since 2015

The UK's low-carbon and renewable energy economy reached an estimated £77.0 billion of turnover in 2024, 91.3% higher than in 2015. That is a substantial sign of activity, but the shape of the growth matters: employment fell in the latest year, the figures are survey-based and turnover is not the same as measured emissions cuts.

The useful part of this story is not that the UK now has a neat green-economy label. Labels are easy. What matters is that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is measuring actual turnover, employment and businesses in low-carbon and renewable energy activity, and the long-term direction is now hard to ignore.

In 2024, the ONS estimated £77.0 billion of turnover in the UK's Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE). The same release estimated 304,000 full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs and 118,000 businesses reporting LCREE activity.

That is a strong public-interest number because it moves the low-carbon economy out of the realm of distant targets. It is business activity, products, services, electricity generation, energy efficiency, low-emission vehicles, infrastructure, consultancy and low-carbon heat. The transition is not just being promised. In parts of the economy, it is being sold, built, serviced and counted.

In practical terms, that can mean people working on renewable electricity, grid equipment, building efficiency, insulation, heat pumps, energy monitoring, electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, low-carbon consultancy and other services attached to those sectors. It is not a single green job title. It is a set of activities across firms that may be wholly low-carbon, or may have only part of their work counted as low-carbon.

Quick answer

The number to hold onto

The number is powerful because it is simple. A £77.0 billion low-carbon and renewable energy economy is not a pilot project. It is large enough to matter for industrial policy, regional development, electricity investment, household energy products, transport infrastructure and the companies trying to sell into those markets.

It is also easy to overread. The ONS states that the financial estimates are in current prices, with no inflation adjustment. The statistics come from an annual business survey rather than a count of every UK business. Some companies report LCREE activity as only one part of what they do. A bigger turnover number therefore tells us that activity grew. It does not automatically tell us that emissions fell, jobs improved everywhere or the UK has solved the delivery problem.

Where the growth is showing up

The electricity number is the most obvious link to the wider TPB Progress tracker. Low-carbon electricity was the largest turnover group in 2024, at £33.6 billion. That sits beside the physical power-system evidence in our UK electricity generation mix, offshore wind, solar capacity, battery storage and grid connections progress checks.

The economic and physical stories need each other. Turnover tells us there is money moving through low-carbon activity. Generation, capacity, connections and emissions data tell us whether that activity is becoming real system change.

The jobs picture is less simple

The employment line keeps the story grounded. ONS estimates put LCREE employment at 304,000 FTEs in 2024, down by 13,000 FTEs since 2023. The long-term trend is still positive, with employment 51.6% higher than in 2015, but a bigger market does not automatically mean more jobs in every year or every place.

There are two reasons to be careful. First, the ONS release says survey uncertainty affects how year-on-year changes should be interpreted, especially for employment and business counts. Second, a high-turnover sector is not automatically a high-employment sector. Offshore wind, grid equipment, low-emission vehicles, energy efficiency products and consultancy can have very different job profiles.

That distinction is important for local politics as well as climate policy. A low-carbon economy that grows mainly through capital-intensive electricity generation will not feel the same as one that grows through installers, engineers, efficiency upgrades, repair, manufacturing, public transport or building retrofit. The £77.0 billion number is a strong start. The distribution of work decides how widely the progress is felt.

What the growth shows

The data proves that low-carbon and renewable energy activity is no longer a fringe economic category in the UK. Turnover has nearly doubled since 2015. All six LCREE groups have seen turnover rise over that period. Low-emission vehicles and infrastructure have grown from £3.7 billion in 2015 to £11.6 billion in 2024.

It also shows why clean-energy capital is not only a global story. The World Energy Investment 2026 guide explains the International Energy Agency (IEA) view that clean energy and electrification now attract far more capital globally than fossil fuels. The UK LCREE statistics show the domestic business-activity version of the same trend.

For readers following the public-asset side of that shift, the Crown Estate guide explains why seabed leasing and offshore wind revenues matter to the UK clean-power buildout. The low-carbon economy article is the broader accounting layer: not a single institution or project, but an estimate of the activity across sectors.

Where the number stops

The figures do not prove that the UK is on track for net zero. They do not prove that every business counted is mostly low-carbon. They do not prove that jobs are rising in every region. They do not prove that turnover growth has already translated into lower UK territorial emissions.

That last point is the most important one. The UK can have a growing low-carbon economy and still face difficult emissions gaps in transport, buildings, industry, aviation, agriculture and land use. Our UK emissions reductions progress check shows why the national emissions total is still the hard delivery test.

The statistics are also bounded by method. The ONS survey covers direct LCREE activity and asks businesses to self-classify into defined sectors. It includes only the portion of activity directly related to those sectors in the UK. The 2024 and 2023 estimates are provisional, and confidence intervals matter.

Why the number matters

The LCREE figure matters because climate progress needs more than targets. It needs firms that can build, install, finance, maintain, advise, measure and improve the systems behind those targets. The ONS data shows that part of this economic base is becoming more visible in the UK economy.

Some of that work shows up in low-carbon electricity. Some shows up in energy efficient products. Some shows up in low-emission vehicles and infrastructure. Some shows up in services and low-carbon heat. The mix matters, because each part creates different jobs, infrastructure needs and local effects.

The useful reader question is therefore practical: where is the economy already moving, and where is it still thin? A mature low-carbon economy should eventually show not only turnover growth, but stronger employment evidence, clearer regional spread, more delivery capacity and emissions reductions that can be traced in official statistics.

What to watch next

• Whether the next LCREE release confirms continued turnover growth after revisions.
• Whether employment recovers from the 2024 year-on-year fall in the central estimate.
• Whether low-carbon heat, energy efficiency and retrofit activity become a larger part of the jobs story.
• Whether low-emission vehicles and infrastructure keep growing as the UK zero emission vehicle mandate tightens.
• Whether clean-power delivery, grid connections and storage capacity grow fast enough to support the turnover signal.
• Whether national emissions statistics show the economic growth converting into measurable climate delivery.

FAQ

What is the UK's low-carbon and renewable energy economy?

The ONS defines the low-carbon and renewable energy economy as economic activities that deliver goods and services likely to help the UK generate lower greenhouse gas emissions. The survey covers 17 sectors, grouped into areas such as low-carbon electricity, low-carbon heat, energy efficient products, low-carbon services and low-emission vehicles.

That means a job can sit in quite practical places: renewable power, grid equipment, retrofit, insulation, heat pumps, energy-saving products, electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, consultancy and related services. The important boundary is that the ONS counts the low-carbon part of the activity, not necessarily every job or pound inside a company that does some low-carbon work.

How big is the UK low-carbon economy?

The ONS estimated UK LCREE turnover at £77.0 billion in 2024. That was 11.8% higher than in 2023 and 91.3% higher than in 2015, the first year of comparable data.

How many people work in the UK low-carbon economy?

The ONS estimated 304,000 full-time-equivalent jobs in UK LCREE activity in 2024. That was 51.6% higher than in 2015, but 4.1% lower than the 2023 central estimate.

Does a growing low-carbon economy prove the UK is cutting emissions fast enough?

No. It is a useful progress signal, but it is not the same as measured emissions reductions. The figures need to be read beside UK emissions data, clean-power delivery, transport electrification, heat decarbonisation and industrial change.

Why does the ONS warn about uncertainty?

The LCREE estimates are survey-based. They come from a sample of businesses rather than the whole population, and many businesses have only a portion of their activity in low-carbon sectors. The ONS says confidence intervals and longer-term trends should be considered when interpreting changes.

Useful source links

• ONS: Low carbon and renewable energy economy, UK: 2024
• ONS: Low carbon and renewable energy economy estimates dataset
• ONS: LCREE Survey quality and methodology information
• ONS: Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy Survey indirect estimates
• Feature image: Siemens Wind Turbine Blade Factory by Ian S on Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0